On 3 November 2026, voters across the US will head to the polls for the midterm elections, a set of crucial nationwide and local electoral contests. It will shape the balance of power in Congress and influence the direction of US domestic and foreign policy for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s current term.
The elections take place halfway through a presidential term, between presidential elections. Although the sitting president is not on the ballot, midterm elections have historically served as a referendum on the administration, offering an indication of the public mood and confidence in the government.
The midterms decide which political parties control the two chambers of Congress: all seats in the House of Representatives, a third of the seats in the Senate, several gubernatorial and other state-focused races such as state legislatures, and local elections such as mayoral races.
The battle for control of Congress
All 435 voting seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats are being contested in November.
Representatives of the House serve two-year terms, meaning every seat is up for election, while senators serve staggered six-year terms, with approximately one-third of the chamber elected every two years.
What does the US Congress do?
Congress has considerable influence over the direction of federal policy. It passes legislation, approves government spending and taxation, oversees federal agencies and conducts investigations into the work of the administration.
Members of the House introduce and vote on proposed legislation. For most legislation to become law, a bill must pass both the House of Representatives and the Senate in identical form before being sent to the president.
The president can then sign it into law or veto it. Congress can override a presidential veto, but this requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers.
This is why it can be politically advantageous for the party holding the presidency to also control Congress. Having majorities in both chambers makes it easier to advance the president’s legislative agenda, although disagreements within the party and procedural obstacles can still prevent legislation from passing.
Congress also plays an important role in scrutinising and challenging the administration. Through congressional investigations, oversight hearings, legislation and control over federal spending, lawmakers can scrutinise presidential decisions and place limits on executive policy.
This can be particularly important in areas such as military action, environmental protection, energy and agricultural policy.
The Senate also has an important role in confirming presidential appointments, including federal judges and senior government officials.
Therefore, a change in control of either chamber would alter the political and legislative environment in Washington, even though the president retains substantial executive powers.
The future of US climate policy
Climate policy is one of the areas where the election could have significant implications.
Federal decisions influence environmental regulation, emissions standards, public investment, clean-energy incentives and the US participation in international climate initiatives and programmes such as the UN climate negotiations.
The direction of federal climate and energy policy has changed under the Trump administration, including through changes to clean-energy tax incentives and the wider regulatory approach.
Congress has a role in shaping the legislation and funding that underpin these policies, while the executive branch and federal agencies are responsible for implementing laws and setting many regulations.
Congress has several mechanisms through which it can challenge or constrain the administration’s retreat from climate and clean-energy policies, including legislation, control over federal spending and congressional oversight.
The election therefore matters not only for future legislation but also for congressional oversight, federal spending and the extent to which existing policies are maintained, modified or challenged.
America’s energy future: Fossil fuels, renewables and energy security
The US has an extensive and diverse energy system encompassing crude oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, hydropower, geothermal energy, wind and solar power, including both photovoltaic and solar thermal technologies.
The country is also developing other energy technologies, including hydrogen, advanced nuclear systems and battery storage, alongside major investments in electricity transmission and grid infrastructure.
Decisions about the future energy mix have implications for electricity prices, industrial competitiveness, employment, energy security and greenhouse gas emissions.
The political debate extends beyond whether to support fossil fuels or renewable energy.
It also concerns how quickly new electricity generation and transmission infrastructure can be developed. And how energy costs are distributed among households and businesses, how the country maintains a reliable electricity supply while demand changes.
AI and data centres
The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and data centres is adding another dimension. These facilities require substantial amounts of electricity, raising questions about grid capacity, new power generation, infrastructure investment and who ultimately pays for the additional supply.
Though AI technology also plays a huge role in how energy is managed, it promises to cut energy waste through better management and innovations in forecasting. Some advocates argue that the advantages of AI can cut more energy than it requires.
The US Department of Energy-supported 2025 update to the country’s data centre energy assessment estimates that data centres could account for 11.8% of national electricity consumption by 2030. However, the report also highlights considerable uncertainty, with projections ranging from 9.5% to 15.3%.
However, whether efficiency improvements will offset the additional electricity demand created by AI remains uncertain, particularly as the technology becomes more widely adopted.
Why state elections matter too
State governments have significant influence over energy and environmental policy. Depending on the state, governors, legislatures, and public utility regulators can shape electricity rates, utility investment, renewable-energy deployment, grid infrastructure, environmental standards, land use and water management.
This makes state-level contests particularly important in areas where energy production, electricity demand and climate-related challenges are closely connected. The political direction of states such as Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Nevada and Georgia can have consequences extending well beyond their borders.
Texas provides an interesting example. Its main electricity grid, operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), operates largely independently of the rest of the US electricity system and is not synchronously interconnected with the country’s other major grids.
Nearly two-thirds of states are electing a new governor at the 2026 midterm elections, with 36 gubernatorial elections taking place on 3 November, making these contests an important part of the midterm picture
Why the outcome matters beyond the US
The US remains an influential actor in global energy markets, the development of clean technologies and at least until recently international climate negotiations.
Its domestic policies can affect investment decisions, technology deployment, international trade and the pace of the global energy transition.
The relationship between the US and China is particularly important. Both countries are major players in clean-energy manufacturing, electric vehicles, batteries and other emerging technologies. The US remains heavily dependent on China for rare earth minerals and, particularly, the processing and refining of these materials. China accounts for around 60% of global rare earth mining, but its dominance is considerably greater in processing and separation, where it accounts for approximately 90% of global capacity. During the trade tensions between the two countries, China introduced export controls on several rare earth elements, highlighting the vulnerability of US supply chains and the strategic importance of these materials.
Changes in US industrial policy, trade policy and support for domestic energy industries can therefore have implications for global competition and investment.
The election will also have consequences for international climate cooperation, development finance and relations with countries seeking investment in renewable energy and low-carbon infrastructure.
What to watch on 3 November
The 2026 midterms are about more than which party gains control of Congress. They will help determine the political conditions under which the US approaches energy security, electricity affordability, environmental protection and the transition towards a lower-carbon economy.
At A greener life, a greener world, we will follow the election through its political, economic, climate and energy dimensions, examining both the national contest and the state-level races that could shape America’s future energy and environmental policies.
Anders Lorenzen is the founding Editor of A greener life, a greener world.
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