China’s emissions may have peaked – a global climate milestone – A greener life, a greener world

By Anders Lorenzen

China, the world’s largest carbon emitter, may have reached a historic turning point.

New data compiled for Carbon Brief by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) suggests that China’s greenhouse gas emissions have now been flat or falling for 18 months, raising the prospect that the country has hit peak emissions.

The analysis, led by CREA’s lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta, draws on multiple official datasets, including the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the National Energy Administration, and the China Electricity Council. It finds that emissions in the third quarter of 2025 remained steady or slightly down, continuing the downward trend first observed in 2024.

A clean energy surge

The findings show that China’s massive clean energy buildout is reshaping the country’s emissions trajectory.

In the first nine months of 2025 alone, China added 240 gigawatts (GW) of solar and 61 GW of wind capacity — a remarkable 46% and 11% year-on-year increase, respectively. Despite electricity demand growth accelerating to 6.1%, power-sector emissions were flat, suggesting that renewables are increasingly meeting new demand, once fuelled by coal.

Meanwhile, electric vehicle (EV) expansion is driving further declines. Transport-related oil use and emissions dropped by 5% in the third quarter, as Chinese EV makers continue to strengthen their global market position.

However, the picture remains uneven. Emissions from cement and steel production — two of the country’s most carbon-intensive sectors fell by 7% and 3% respectively, but chemical production rose by 10%, offsetting some of the overall reductions.

At the end of September, total emissions were around 3% lower year-on-year, according to the analysis. Whether this decline continues into the final quarter will determine if 2025 marks China’s first full-year drop in carbon output.

Implications for COP30

As delegates gather in Belém, Brazil, for COP30, the data could carry symbolic weight. The oft-heard argument that “others should wait until China acts” now looks increasingly out of date.

“Considering the size of China’s economy and how much clean energy it’s adding, no country is advancing clean energy and reducing carbon intensity as fast,” Myllyvirta noted.

Even if China misses its 2020–2025 carbon intensity target, this potential peak signals that the era of unchecked emissions growth in China may be ending — a development with profound implications for global climate progress.