The smartphone industry is in for a downturn by the end of the year, with a forecast that predicts shipments will decrease by up to 16.7% by the end of 2026. A big driving factor in this forecast, which comes from IDC, is the memory crisis. The increase in cost of memory components for manufacturers has led to those manufacturers raising prices on smartphones which contain that memory. Which then led to a decrease in smartphone shipments because phones were costing more money and fewer consumers were willing to pay for phones at those higher prices.
According to IDC, foldable smartphones are the only category of smartphones that is actually predicted to increase in shipments year-on-year. Compared to the same time in 2025, the foldables category which contains phones like the Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Galaxy Z Flip 8, is forecast to go up by 12.6% year-on-year. This is only a forecast, so it’s not currently a concrete figure. IDC does believe, however, that the foldables market will increase by this amount driven in part by Apple’s expected upcoming foldable, the iPhone Ultra.
Smartphone shipments are expected to decrease by an additional 2.9% after 2026
IDC is basing its forecasts on continued memory crisis impacts, which big manufacturers are expecting to carry into 2028. With that in mind, smartphone shipments are expected to decrease another year following 2026, with shipments falling 2.9% from this year’s forecasted drop of 16.7%.
However, IDC expects that shipments will start to take an upturn in 2028. Shipments are expected to increase by up to 4.5% from 2026’s final numbers. Shipments are also then expected to continue increasing the following two years. With an increase of 3.6% in 2029, and then an increase of 2.8% in 2030. In addition to these smartphone shipment decreases, IDC expects that by the end of 2026, smartphone prices will have gone up by 26.7% year-on-year to an average of $581.
