Devastating flash floods in the US state of Texas have had disproportionately fatal consequences.
At the time of writing, the extreme weather event has claimed the lives of at least 130 people, with an estimated 170 people still unaccounted for.
Those fatalities include 27 girls at the all-girls Christian summer camp, Camp Mystic.
Texas is a deeply red conservative Republican state where the political leadership reject the scientific consensus on climate change, and is the largest fossil fuel producer in the US and is historically the birthplace of the oil boom.
A rapid scientific analysis has found that the production and burning of fossil fuels is at the heart of this climate-fueled extreme weather event.
Texas July floods: Fuelled by climate change
A study by ClimaMeter, a rapid extreme weather experimental framework based in Paris, France, has concluded that climate change fueled the weather conditions leading up to the flash floods.
The study, which analysed changes in weather patterns since 1950, found that similar meteorological conditions in the region have warmed by 15.5 degrees C and are 2mm wetter per day than they were in the past. This has created an environment in which sudden and high-impact rainfall events are more likely.
Texas July floods: More than natural variability
It added that the heavy rainfall that led to the floods cannot be explained by natural variability alone, and it points to the likelihood that human-caused climate change was one of the main drivers of the event.
Other factors, such as land use change, urban sprawl, and warning system failures, could have significantly contributed to the climate-fueled extreme weather disaster.
ClimaMeter is developed by the ESTIMR team at Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement in Paris Saclay. The project is funded by the European Union and the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS).
The researchers working on the ClimaMeter study explained that the tragic and fatal floods in Texas were characterised by cooler-than-usual air masses combined with an exceptional concentration of precipitation over the Guadalupe River basin. Present-day atmospheric conditions resembling this event are now wetter and warmer, favouring the kind of rapid river surges that overwhelmed Camp Mystic and nearby towns.
These findings align with IPCC conclusions that link the intensification of short-duration, high-intensity rainfall to global climate change.
We are loading the dice on climate change
CNRS David Faranda said their study has underlined the need for urgent climate action: “Events of this kind are no longer exceptional in a warming world. Climate change loads the dice toward more frequent and more intense floods. The flash flood that tore through Camp Mystic at night, when people were most vulnerable, shows the deadly cost of underestimating this shift. We need to rethink early warning systems, land-use planning, and emergency preparedness. Above all, we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit future risks.”
Criticism of the US government
Many have already accused the US government of being complicit in the fatality of this event. The Federal Emergency Management Agency FEMA, the government body overseeing the response to natural disasters, has been severely slashed by the Trump Administration. For this event, FEMA did not respond to many emergency calls due to a lack of personnel.
Anders Lorenzen is the founding Editor of A greener life, a greener world.
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Categories: climate change, impacts, science, US, Weather
