– UK/US trade deal announcement at 10:00 am
– Bank of England cuts rates by 25 bps, as expected
– US dollar rallies across the board.
USDCAD: open 1.3884, overnight range 1.3813-1.3890, close 1.3841, WTI 58.79, Gold 3331.59
The Canadian dollar outlook soured yesterday following the FOMC decision to not only leave rates unchanged (which was expected) but to remain on the sidelines until they can get better clarity on how Trump’s tariffs will impact the economy.
WTI bounced in a 59.20 to 57.75 band in a somewhat choppy overnight session. Opec is expected to continue its production cut reversal, and along with the ongoing risk of a global economic slowdown, suggest gains are limited.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will hold a press conference to discuss the Financial Stability report today at 10:00 ET.
The Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady, and Jerome Powell made it clear the Fed is in no rush to start cutting. What stood out, though, was the not-so-subtle nod to stagflation. The Fed flagged rising risks of both higher inflation and unemployment—an uncomfortable combo. Stock traders shrugged it off, but the greenback perked up on the news.
Wall Street ended higher post-Fed, and Asia followed suit. Japan’s Topix inched up 0.09%, and the ASX 200 added 0.16%. In Europe, Trump’s UK trade chatter nudged sentiment higher, lifting the DAX by 1.22% and the CAC 40 by 1.04%. S&P 500 futures climbed 1.11% as of 6:15 am, with the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at 4.308%.
EURUSD traded in a 1.1271–1.1336 band, climbing in Asia before backpedaling in Europe and drifting toward the NY low. The euro remains on the defensive, weighed by the ECB’s dovish bias and the likelihood the Fed stays put longer than expected.
GBPUSD ranged from 1.3261 to 1.3357 and popped after the Bank of England trimmed rates by 25 bps to 4.25%. The jury’s out on whether the BoE gets more aggressive with its easing tone. Any downside in the pound may be muted if markets decide Trump’s tweak to trade with the UK is more than window dressing.
USDJPY moved between 143.45 and 145.00, climbing steadily before stalling at 145.00. Optimism over the ‘announcement’ has triggered a bit of safe-haven unwinding, especially if it signals broader trade détente. Still, expectations for more BOJ hikes should cap USDJPY upside.
AUDUSD saw action in a 0.6403–0.6465 range, bouncing higher in Asia but reversing sharply in Europe before finding modest footing in NY. The chop reflects the tension between a dovish RBA and a Fed that’s still sitting on its hands.
Today’s US data includes weekly jobless claims and wholesale inventories.
