Bernstein on Trent
O-P, TP Rs 5000
3Q26: Strong margins delivered; growth revival still loading
Growth challenges, but was known since business update
Network growth is steady.
Margin improvement trajectory stabilizes and is sustainable.
Employee Costs leverage has played out and will depend on SSSG revival from here on.
Jefferies on Trent
Hold, TP Rs 4575
3Q rev growth was at a multi‑qtr low (known from pre‑qtr release), but margins drove an EBITDA surprise.
Negative fashion LFL was partly attributable to shift in the festive calendar, a trend also observed across other retailers.
Mgmt remains focused on expansion in existing & new markets.
Despite sharp stock correction, prefer to stay on the sidelines until there is clearer evidence of a sustained recovery
Like improving disclosure standards
CITI on Trent
Sell, TP Rs 4350
While revenue growth was broadly in-line with Citi est, EBITDA/adj PAT growth of 27%/40% YoY was 6%/27% ahead of Citi est – the quality of beat implies profitability/margin may not sustain. Beat on EBITDA was led by GM expansion (+29bps YoY to 45% vs Citi est of 43.8%; improved YoY after 5 consecutive qtr of decline) while beat on PAT was further fueled by 201% YoY growth in other income
See risk to margins given GM expansion is not sustainable (due to changing business mix) and employee and rent cost growth trend in the last 4qtr has been only -7% to 3% and 0-7% respectively vs area growth of 38-43% YoY.
GS on Trent
Neutral, TP Rs 4530
Gross margin led EBIT beat
Operating cost benefits likely behind, 4Q profitability to be under pressure
Negative LFL growth in 3Q a risk to FY27-28 growth and margin est.
UBS on Trent
Buy, TP Rs 5300
Q3 manages to surprise on earnings positively
Despite weaker topline (and -ve SSSG), delivers strong margin expansion
Trent continues to pursue its core growth strategy
Est. c22% revenue growth for FY27E, which could still carry upside risk if demand conditions also improve, while Trent continues to solve for its own operational excellence.
Nuvama on Trent
Hold, TP Rs 4543
Standalone revenue/EBITDA/adjusted PAT growth of 16%/28%/19% YoY in Q3.
Operating deleverage due to negative LFL during Q3 was offset by gross margin improvement (+29bp) possibly due to favourable mix in favour of Westside and lower employee cost (-73bp). Management did indicate that all benefits of automation are now realised, implying productivity-led margin improvement going ahead, which has been under pressure from past year
Rent (fixed & variable) growth at 17% YoY was in line with revenue growth.
Jefferies on IT
Anthropic’s Cowork plug‑ins and Palantir’s claims of faster SAP migrations highlight how AI could potentially erode application service revenues for IT firms.
With application services being 40-70% of revenues, IT firms face growth pressures.
Consensus growth estimates don’t fully reflect this, posing downside risk to valuations
Reiterate selective stance & prefer HCLTech/Infosys among large IT & Coforge/Sagility among smidcaps
Macquarie on IT sector
AI impact concerns overdone
Believe there is no significant revenue disruption risk
Indian IT Services firms typically cater to large enterprise customers with multi country operations who have extremely complex SAP environments
Large-cap India IT Services firms have significant revenue exposure to Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) tools like SAP and Oracle
However, most India IT Services firms no longer disclose their revenue from ERP
CITI on IT
CTSH 4Q25 earnings & CY26 Guidance — 4Q Revenues of $5.3b, +4.9% yoy .
Revenue growth in cc came in at +3.8% yoy – top 6 Indian IT had reported flattish cc yoy growth.
CY25 revenue came in at $21.1b, up 6.4% cc yoy (includes ~260bps from Belcan acquisition).
Adj. EBIT margins came in at 16% in 4Q. Cognizant expects cc revenue growth of +4% to +6.5% yoy in CY26, which includes inorganic contribution of ~150bps.
1Q26 cc revenue guidance represents +2.7% to +4.2% qoq growth in cc (includes ~100 bps from acquisition).
CY26 EBIT margin guidance at 15.9% to 16.1% (expansion of 10-30bps yoy).
NSEIT has underperformed NIFTY by 24% in past 12m; remain cautious
Nomura on Cognizant
Beat in 4Q FY25, strong deal wins to aid growth Firmly establishing itself in the winner’s circle
FY26E guidance reasonable in the face of macro uncertainties
Margin recovery continued under NextGen initiative
Macquarie on Devyani
O-P, TP Rs 160
Sustaining Jan pickup in same store sales is key
3Q Ebitda below est
liked: 1) positive same store sales growth witnessed in Jan across formats except Pizza Hut;
2) profitability improvement in recently acquired brands/ Vaango with break-even in Biryani by Kilo format achieved before the Mar-26 target;
3) healthy sequential gross margin recovery across formats, which Devyani expects to sustain; and
4) healthy growth in international formats
Did not like:
1) the continued margin weakness across most formats in India;
2) higher India overheads albeit company expects this to stabilise at 5% of sales going forward; and
3) the cautious outlook on demand pickup in Jan sustaining in 4Q, given history of false starts
Jefferies on Devyani
Upgrade to Buy, TP Rs 145
Co announced elevation of Manish Dawar from CFO to CEO wef Apr-26 – while this ensures leadership continuity, expect new CEO to take a hard look at business & put the franchise back on a sustainable growth path
Chairman also indicated that PH turnaround is underway; Jan-26 also started on a positive note (SSSG) for all brands (ex-PH)
Announced merger with Sapphire may involve ST uncertainty but view as a LT positive
Bernstein on Devyani
O-P, TP Rs 160
New CEO begins a long road to recovery for the franchise
Reported +12% YoY consol. revenue growth in 3Q26, with 40% growth due to recent acquisition of Sky Gate (Biryani By Kilo and Goila Chicken brands)
Rest of India business revenue growth continued to be weak – with KFC India (+6%), PH India (-6%), Vaango (+3%) and Franchisee brands (+9%).
However, margins weakened across board with higher delivery costs and de-leverage impact.
Consol brand contribution margins fell to 13.9% (-40 bps YoY), with India business BC margin at 13.1% (-80 bps YoY).
CITI on Devyani
Buy, TP Rs 192
Revenue grew by 11% YoY (2% above Citi est.) while EBITDA grew by 3% YoY (8% above Citi est.).
KFC witnessed improvement in SSG (-2.9% in 3Q vs -4.2% in 2Q) despite the partial shift of festive from 3Q to 2Q.
Management highlighted: (a) early signs of consumption improvement – DIL saw positive SSG across all its brands (ex-Pizza Hut) in Jan; (b) initiative/experiments on promotions/deals and changed in strategy for online and offline business driving improvement in SSG; (c) biryani by kilo achieved brand EBITDA BEV ahead of its target.
GS on Devyani
Buy, TP Rs 160
Company saw positive SSSG in January, but will wait to call out recovery
KFC SSSG below estimates, EBITDA in line
Gross margin beat across formats
India revenue in line, EBITDA beat as BBK achieves break even ahead of guidance
JPM on Westlife
OW, TP cut to Rs 560
Q3 EBITDA ahead of estimates even as revenue was in-line.
SSSG at -3.2% stayed subdued, though trends improved sequentially with positive SSSG in Jan month
Store openings were a tad soft at 10 (vs 15 in Q3FY25, 2 closures), but WESTLIFE is confident of opening 20-25 stores in Q4 & reiterated its target of 580-630 stores by CY27.
Macquarie on Westlife
O-P TP Rs 600
3Q EBITDA beat on lower royalty payout
Liked
1) positive-same-store sales growth seen in January;
2) normalisation of the third-party aggregatory delivery business in 4Q;
3) healthy traction in the dine-in business on value options and innovations.
However, did not like inability to extrapolate lower royalty costs in 3Q & concerns that January recovery may not be sustained given prior false starts in industry
MS on Adani Energy Solutions
Initiate OW, TP Rs 1133
AESL has large scale, a strong execution record, and diversified earnings growth levers across transmission, distribution and smart meters
Earnings outlook has upside as AESL wins more smart meter contracts & as distribution opportunity opens for private sector
Project EBITDA CAGR of 21%, F25-30e
Transmission: AESL targets 20-25% share; EBITDA CAGR: 30%, F25-28e
Distribution: AESL targets 20% share in parallel licensing.
Smart metering: AESL targets 20% share; 9% of F28e EBITDA.
Nomura on Cummins
Buy, TP Rs 4780
Revenue down 1% y-y, +1%/-2% vs our/consensus estimates
EBITDA +6%/-9% y-y/q-q, as weaker operating leverage offset gross margin expansion
Management sees resilience in domestic demand led by sustained capex across key sectors
While exports face near-term pressure due to geopolitical uncertainties, management expects greater stability over the medium to long term
Management remains watchful on policy developments and sees continued collaboration with key trade partners as a key enabler of growth across end markets
KKC is maintaining execution discipline along with prudent capital allocation, strong cost controls, a healthy balance sheet, & a robust cash balance
UBS on Cummins
Sell, TP Rs 3400
Q3FY26 – Rev down 1%; EBITDA up 6%YoY, margins at 20.8%; rev/EBITDA miss of 2/1% vs street.
GMs healthy at 37.9% (+309/+133bps YoY/QoQ) and EBITDA at 20.8%(+133/– 115bps YoY/QoQ).
Exports sales +2%/-14%YoY/QoQ; domestic -2%/-2%YoY/ QoQ.
9M revenue/EBITDA up 16%/26% YoY.
Results in-line; stock reaction hinges on mgt commentary
MS on HAL
Downgrade to UW from EW. TP cut to Rs 3355 from Rs 5092
HAL has outperformed Nifty by 4% YTD & consensus P/E is down 15% in past year
See downside risk to stock given increased private sector competition & if slower execution persists due to high import dependance as multiple countries look to increase defence spend.
lower our EPS by 2% & 5% for F27 & F28e
JP Morgan On Hindustan Aeronautics
Recommendation Overweight, Target Price ₹6004
Out of the AMCA bid – can’t have it all
This event is negative for HAL, but was largely expected
This is given the need for a fast-track development of AMCA
HAL’s already large order book (7x revenue) and a delay in delivery of the LCA Mk1A
After today’s correction valuations look attractive
Believe HAL has an ample opportunity to win large orders, excluding the AMCA
CITI on India Defense Manufacturing
AMCA shortlist announced as per press reports
L&T-Bharat Electronics JV among shortlisted consortia
Tata Advanced Systems and Bharat Forge-BEL also shortlisted
Final winner to be selected post RFP and prototype evaluation
HAL not shortlisted for next stage
No impact on HAL existing order backlog
Goldman Sachs on Solar Industries
Maintain Buy; target price ₹18,900
Q3FY26 performance ahead of estimates and consensus
Defense revenue to pick up in Q4 led by Pinaka execution
International business to benefit from Africa mining traction
India non-defense volumes seen at 10–12% revenue ~15%
EPS CAGR of 20%+ seen feasible on strong order book
EPS estimates raised 2–3% for FY26–28
Nuvama on Solar Ind
Buy, TP Rs 15800
Despite delayed Pinaka deliveries, Solar Industries (SOIL) reported an in-line Q3FY26 versus Street led by International (+35% YoY) and Defence (+72% YoY) revenue growth with OPM at 27.8% (versus Street estimate of 26.1%).
Management reiterated FY26 revenue guidance of INR100bn (30% defence mix) and 27% OPM.
Commercialisation of 155mm shell and Pinaka delivery pickup remain key catalysts.
Jefferies on Emcure Pharma
Buy, TP Rs 1780
Delivered an all round beat with Sales/PAT growth of 20%/50% YoY.
India grew 15% YoY while exports grew 25% YoY.
Mgmt commentary was bullish and indicated growth momentum should remain strong in coming years as well
Emcure banks on complex launches, injectable platform, biosimilars and in-licensed portfolio to drive mid to long term growth
Increase FY26-28 EPS by 2-4%.
Jefferies on DR Agarwal’s Healthcare
Hold TP Rs 470
Dec-Q numbers were broadly in-line with estimates with sales/EBITDA growth of 23%/26% YoY.
Center expansion continues in line with guidance and is on track to add 53 facilities in current fiscal.
During Qtr, volume growth was robust at 11% and low teens SSSG growth.
Premiumization trend provided a strong boost to case mix and higher value per surgery.
Jefferies on Emami
Buy, TP Rs 650
Reported c9% volume growth, a positive – part of this was led by higher grammage (LUPs) to pass on GST cuts.
Some parts of the portfolio still witnessed decline, but this was more than made up by a strong performance in other segments.
Management sounded positive in its demand outlook, esp on rural India.
Overall margins were also ahead, which mainly drove the earnings surprise
Elara on Kansai Nerolac Paints
Accumulate, target price ₹2440
Q3 revenue miss led by weak decorative demand
Industrial coatings strong driven by auto and infra
Extended monsoon and shorter festive season hit growth
Q4 decorative growth seen mid single digit
Margin guidance maintained at 13–14%
Earnings cut for FY27–28 on lower topline
Valuation rolled forward to 25x FY28 PE
Morgan Stanley on Aptus Value Housing Finance
Overweight, target price ₹420
3QFY26 adjusted PAT beat by 5% ROE at 20%
Loan spread at 8.9% other income above estimates
AUM growth 21% YoY management guides 20–21% for FY26
Festive season led to higher stress formation QoQ
Valuation attractive at ~13x NTM PE vs peers despite superior ROE
Citi on Aptus Value Housing Finance
Maintain Buy; target price ₹350
Credit cost elevated at 56bps due to aggressive write-offs
AUM growth moderated to 21% YoY
Spreads stable aided by lower cost of funds
ROA and ROE remain healthy
Growth guidance trimmed but medium-term outlook intact
Nuvama on Restaurant Brands Asia
Maintains Buy | target price ₹75 (earlier ₹81)
Gross margin expansion aided by supply-chain efficiencies and reduced delivery discounting
Margin target achieved ahead of earlier FY29 timeline
Pre-Ind-AS EBITDA margin improved to 7%, highest since listing; due to gross margin gains and operating leverage
India business delivered strong growth; delivery portfolio margins improved ~200 bp
44 stores added in Q3, taking total to 577; guidance maintained at 60–80 stores annually
Indonesia business remained weak with 4% YoY revenue decline
Burger King ADS improving but EBITDA negative due to higher marketing spend
‘Popeyes’ continues to face scale and profitability challenges
FY26E/27E revenue revised by +0.4%/+1.1% and EBITDA by -6.5%/-3.2% based on YTD FY26 performance
Nuvama on Pidilite Industries
Maintain Buy with target price of ₹1,915 (earlier ₹1,895)
Company revenue and profit grew strongly year on year
Growth was driven mainly by the domestic business
Construction and adhesives segment showed solid demand
B2B domestic sales increased at a healthy pace
Waterproofing and tile adhesive categories grew well
Export business declined sharply due to weak markets
Nuvama on TeamLease Services
Maintains Buy | target price ₹2,400 (earlier ₹2,600)
Q3FY26 revenue impacted by headcount decline in General Staffing
Specialised Staffing revenue growth supported by GCC demand; GCCs now contribute 65% of Specialised staffing revenue
EBITDA margin in line with estimates; General Staffing margin improved sequentially
Specialised Staffing margin moderated QoQ
Adjusted PAT (excluding labour code impact) stood at ₹483 mn; higher other income from tax refunds aided earnings
Management expects General Staffing headcount recovery over the next two quarters; full recovery assumed by end-H1FY27E
FY26E/27E EPS revised by +7.9%/-4.0%
Morgan Stanley on Apollo Tyres
Recommendation Equal-weight; Target ₹542
Q3 – In line with consensus; a touch below estimates
Indian business margins were weaker than expected, but EU business was stronger
Company has also announced its FY29 capacity expansion plans
Proposed an expansion of capacity of 3.7mn units for PCR and 1.3mn units for TBR
Capital outlay of Rs 5810 cr, funded via internal accruals and debt
Morgan Stanley on Tata Power
Recommendation Equal-weight; Target ₹399
Q3 – weak quarter
Q3 was affected by higher losses in Mundra cluster and continued delays in RE commissioning
Under construction renewable portfolio has 50:50 wind:solar mix
Equity IRR could be at risk due to increases in wafer prices
Any further delay in Mundra resolution would weigh on profitability
Earnings sensitivity is higher from green business; leverage remains comfortable
Citi on India equity strategy
3Q earnings largely in line with EBITDA growth near 9% YoY
Macro sentiment improving on easing inflation and trade deals
Manufacturing and infrastructure spending supportive
Valuations reasonable on absolute and relative basis
Citi constructive on Indian equities
Nifty Dec 26 target implies ~12% upside
Jefferies India strategy
December 25 mid-quarter review – Improved trend
FY26 EPS has been upgraded by 0.6% during the results season so far, a trend reversal
For 135+ companies under coverage reporting as yet, the upgrades to 48% of cos are also trending better thus far
Financials, IT, staples delivered results above estimates
Reported nos. were lower on one-off impact (7% of PBT) due to the implementation of the new labor codes
BoFA India strategy
Improving MFI metric; mass consumption growth slow
Premium consumption categories continue to do well
Overweight rate sensitive and well-off consumption
Rate sensitive – Financials, Real Estate, Passenger/Commercial vehicle & regulated Power utilities
Expect Capex growth to meaningfully slow for Central govt given limited fiscal room
Maintain Underweight stance on Industrials & Cement but prefer select Capex plays on growth visibility
Within global plays, prefer Pharma & Aluminum but are Underweight on IT, Steel & Energy
Prefer Defensives: Telecom & Hospitals
