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Our new writing series, National security: climate, energy and biodiversity, explores and investigates how climate change, energy systems, biodiversity loss and resource pressures are reshaping the way governments think about security, resilience and geopolitics.
Our first investigation focuses on the UK government’s assessment of biodiversity loss, ecosystem collapse and national security:
Biodiversity and national security: the UK’s missing assessment
The much-awaited UK government assessment of global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse was eventually published in January 2026.
However, it only appeared after an intervention in the form of a Freedom of Information request.
The government had initially stated in October 2025 that the report was ready and was being prepared for publication. But nothing happened, and it continued to sit unpublished, without a clear public explanation for the delay.
Is the government withholding information?
This fuelled speculation among climate groups, campaigners and environmental advocates about whether the government was withholding information it did not want the public to see.
When the assessment was finally released following a Freedom of Information request by Ruth Chambers of the think tank Green Alliance, it offered almost as many questions as answers.
What was the fuss all about?
At just 14 pages, you could be forgiven for asking: is this it? Is this what all the controversy was about?
While the available evidence on biodiversity loss, ecosystem degradation and climate-related shocks is deeply concerning, there was little in the published assessment that appeared entirely new. Much of the underlying evidence and many of the risks it identifies had already been documented by scientists, international organisations, security analysts and policymakers.
The 14-page National Security Assessment on Global Ecosystems provides evidence of the degradation of natural systems that underpin food, water, health and economies. It argues that these pressures could become a threat to UK national security.
But we already knew that biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation could have consequences far beyond the environment.
Given the length of the document and the questions surrounding its publication, it is reasonable to ask:
Was the assessment published in full? If not, what was left out? And if much of the science behind it was already publicly available, what did the government’s national-security analysis add that we have not yet seen?
These questions matter because the assessment has subsequently become more important to government policy and international diplomacy.
What does the report include?
The story begins before the assessment appeared on GOV.UK, the government’s website.
Contemporary reporting said the report had been considered too negative for publication.
The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) eventually published the 14-page assessment on 20 January 2026.
The government describes it as a strategic assessment of how global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse could affect UK national security, resilience and prosperity.
The report identifies six ecosystems of particular strategic importance:
1. Global ecosystem collapse risk
UK government assessment.
The assessment identifies six ecosystems facing degradation and potential collapse:
| Ecosystem | Region | Possible collapse begins | Confidence | Transition period | Scenario classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeast Asian coral reefs | Southeast Asia | 2030 | Medium | 10 years | Reasonable worst-case scenario |
| Himalayas | South Asia / Himalayan region | 2030 | Medium | 50–1,000 years | Reasonable worst-case scenario |
| Amazon rainforest | South America | 2050 | Low | 50–100 years | Reasonable worst-case scenario |
| Congo Basin | Central Africa | 2050 | Low | Uncertain | Reasonable worst-case scenario |
| Southeast Asian mangroves | Southeast Asia | 2050 | Medium | Uncertain | Reasonable worst-case scenario |
| Boreal forests | Canada and Russia | 2050 | Low | 40–100 years | Reasonable worst-case scenario |
Data note: The assessment says there is high confidence that degradation and potential collapse of these ecosystems represents a threat to UK national security. It has lower confidence around some of the timing and transition estimates.
Source: UK government’s National Security Assessment on Global Ecosystems, as summarised by the House of Commons Library.
You can view the datasets extracted from the report at our data portal.
The assessment concludes, with varying degrees of confidence, that degradation of these ecosystems could contribute to food and water insecurity, economic disruption, migration, geopolitical competition and conflict.
None of this means the findings are unimportant, and the potential consequences should not be underplayed.
But these are hardly new concerns. Security experts, analysts, foreign-policy institutions and scientists have been warning for years that environmental degradation can amplify existing economic, social and geopolitical pressures.
The increasing frequency and severity of climate-related shocks may bring some of these risks closer to becoming acute security concerns.
But that brings us back to an obvious question:
How much of the assessment represents new intelligence analysis, and how much is a synthesis of what scientists and international organisations already know?
And perhaps more importantly:
Is there material in the assessment that the public has not seen?
In a series of articles, we will explore these questions, examine what is known about the assessment and investigate what may still be missing from the picture.
Anders Lorenzen is the founding Editor of A greener life, a greener world.
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Categories: Agriculture, biodiversity, ecosystems, investigations, Planetary Boundaries, science, security, UK politics
