There was a time — before Xi Jinping took the wheel in 2012 — when China used to discuss “social democracy.” It was a ploy to keep people hooked on the long-forgotten promise of political reforms. In the end, the party tightened its grip.
As interim head of Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus promised to build a just society that would uphold “democracy, freedom of speech, and human rights.” Holding “inclusive and participatory elections” was part of the agenda. By the time he leaves office, Yunus may be remembered for further dividing an already fractured nation and institutionalising the idea of a ‘limited democracy,’ where promised rights are reserved for a select group or particular ideology. Everyone else is expected to comply.
“Inclusive election does not depend on the participation of a particular party. Inclusiveness means participation of all people (voters),” he told BBC Radio on June 18, justifying a blanket ban on deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League.
The party had secured 25 per cent votes even in the most hostile (1979) and unfavourable (1986) conditions under army rule. Over the last three decades, its lowest vote share was 30 per cent, in 1991. Yunus attributed his claim to the UN Resident Coordinator in Dhaka. When reminded of “the many people in the country who support the Awami League,” the octogenarian replied, “Let them decide whether they will vote or not!”
Manufacturing a mandate
It’s unclear why Yunus chose to ignore the concerns flagged by UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk on June 17 regarding the banning of political parties. What’s clearer is that Yunus is aiming to perfect an art long pursued by his predecessors — Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
Barring the sole exception of the 1996-2001 Hasina government, which ensured a smooth transition of power, every Bangladeshi government in the past three decades has tried to hijack elections to extend its hold on power.
Hasina followed the trend during 2009-2024. She was accused of retaining power through an opposition-free election in 2014, rigging the outcome in 2018, and winning the January 2024 polls by creating a façade of competition. BNP abstained from both the 2014 and 2024 elections.
This was an ‘improvement’ over Zia’s failed attempt to retain power through an opposition-free election in 1996. She was forced to hold a repeat election—and lost. Zia tried again in 2006, but this time the army hijacked the power. Hasina advanced the Khaleda Zia model but she was exposed due to poor political manoeuvring. Overenthusiastic party workers ensured that no one filed nominations in 153 of the 300 parliamentary seats in 2014. The Awami League was declared the winner before a single ballot was cast.
She tried to ‘correct’ that mistake in 2024 by fielding dummy candidates. A breakaway faction of BNP also joined the race. But it was too late. Voter turnout was just 40 per cent.
The daylight vote-rigging of 2018 was the final nail in the coffin. It’s said that she had ‘agreed’ to leave space for a disarrayed opposition in that election —but reneged at the last moment.
Perfecting the Hasina model
The next election may feature an upgraded version of the Hasina model. An official ban on the Awami League, and an unofficial ban on the third-largest party (the Jatiyo Party, with 7-8 per cent vote share), has narrowed the competition.
The contest is now restricted to the BNP, Islamists led by Jamaat-e-Islami, and the student-led National Citizen Party (NCP), a newly born entity. Both Jamaat and NCP are strong supporters of the Yunus administration.
Born from the cradles of state power, the NCP is riddled with controversy — from corruption to mob intimidation. They have near-zero visibility outside Dhaka, and even the youth are disillusioned. Their ideology remains unclear. Officially “centrist,” in practice they easily align with Islamist demands. They are closest to Yunus and wield disproportionate influence over decision-making.
Jamaat, a long-time ally of BNP, has never secured more than five per cent of the vote in the last 30 years. But they’re trying to make the most of the League’s absence. They lost their election registration in 2013. It was restored this week. BNP seemed the obvious choice back in August. Their popularity has since eroded due to rampant extortion and muscle-flexing. But with limited competition, they are poised for an easy win.
Turnout will likely be respectable. Alongside BNP’s 30 per cent core vote and Islamist supporters, many young voters — deprived of the opportunity to vote for 15 years — may turn up out of sheer curiosity. The country’s nine per cent minority — including nearly eight per cent Hindus, a traditional Awami constituency — now live in fear. They may not miss the chance to prove allegiance to BNP.
The rest of the Awami voter base won’t dare approach polling stations. They have been under one-sided attack since August 5. The violence is expected to escalate in the days ahead — setting the stage for the next level of political churn.
No one knows where Bangladesh is headed. Some, like Turkish-origin analyst Uzay Bulut, recently dubbed the country the “Next Islamic hub of South Asia.” Others fear a descent into civil war. Many among them had supported July protests and Hasina’s ouster.
The problem is created. The Hasina government should have faced trial for the July massacre. But instead, the interim administration not only continued the legacy of revenge politics — they elevated it. Today, even 1971 war criminals are treated as lesser evils.
The International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) was created to try Jamaat-e-Islami activists who committed rapes and murders during the Liberation War. This was a key demand in the December 2008 election. There was no provision for prosecuting political parties.
By prosecuting Awami League (party) in the same ICT and suspending their political activities under the Anti-Terror Act, Yunus drew dangerous parallels with the Nazi Party. In a parallel move, a top death-row convict from Jamaat was set free by the court. That was enough of an optic to show who now controls the levers of power. Terrorists from banned outfits who were imprisoned during Hasina’s tenure are now leading protests against the “fascist” Awami League.
Any critique even remotely sympathetic to the League is now vulnerable to mob justice. That marks a new low in Bangladesh’s already troubled democratic history.
The writer is an independent columnist
Published on July 1, 2025
