Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won another term as the President of Brazil’s and a record 4th term in office, defeating Flávio Bolsonaro in a close-fought election.
But the narrow result leaves him facing a difficult question: can he protect recent gains for the Amazon when the next Congress is set to be more conservative and environmental issues barely featured in the campaign?
For both candidates, it was a nail-biting election count, where Bolsonaro monumentally took the lead after Lula had started in the lead. However, the veteran leftist quickly regained the lead and has held it for the duration of the count.
Brazil 2026 presidential election: final results
Second round – run off – 25th of October 2026
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | Workers’ party (PT) | 64,256,232 votes |
51.79 | Final |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | Liberal party (PL) | 59,826,041 votes | 48.21 | Final |
Votes counted: 100.00%
Lula, who is turning 81 this week, received 51.79% of valid votes in Sunday’s run-off. with Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, received 48.21% of the votes.
Out of the Trump political playbook
The result, which Bolsonaro, in true Trump style, has refused to concede, handed a fourth, non-consecutive term to Lula, should not be seen as a sweeping endorsement, with Bolsonaro securing nearly 60 million votes, an increase of roughly three million votes compared to the first round.
But the gain for Lula was a significantly larger margin, increasing his votes by roughly ten million compared to the 4th of October first round, according to the official results announced by Brazil’s electoral authority, the TSE, announced the final count.
Both Lula and Bolsonaro had urged voting to be extended. Lula on the grounds that some states had cancelled public bus services and, as a result, blocked people from getting to polling stations. Bolsonaro on the rounds of weather conditions in certain regions making it more difficult for people to get out and vote. In the 11th hour, Brazil’s Supreme Court announced that voting would be extended by two hours across the country.
Bolsonaro used that ruling to justify the annulment of the results, but failed to acknowledge that he himself has called for an extension of voting.
A swing to the right in the Brazil Congress
The presidential result is only part of the political picture. Elections to Congress were held on the same dates 4th and 25th of October dependant on whether the first round was sufficient to declare the result or a run-off was needed. The TSE rule sets out that a candidate must receive at least 50% of the votes to avoid a run-off election. The new legislature in the Brazilian Congress takes office in February 2027, has shifted to the right.
The Liberal Party, which backed Bolsonaro, will be the largest party in both chambers: it won 121 of 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, up from 99 in the previous election, and will hold 28 seats in the 81-member Senate. Lula’s Workers’ Party will have 70 deputies and nine senators. The published seat totals point to a more difficult legislature for the president, though party strength does not guarantee a unified voting bloc.
Amazon woes
The implications for the Amazon could be substantial. Many incoming lawmakers have campaigned to loosen environmental licensing rules, weaken regulatory agencies and grant amnesties for illegal land seizures, according to the Associated Press. Some changes could be pursued by Congress itself, while others would depend on the government’s choices.
The assessment of the new Congress from the Associated Press news agency describes the potential for a broad alliance of right-wing and centrist lawmakers to shape legislation affecting environmental protection.
What does the result mean for halting deforestation?
That makes the congressional arithmetic relevant to Lula’s promises. His programme calls for zero deforestation by 2030 and continued action on climate change. But he will need to negotiate with lawmakers whose priorities may include expanding economic activity, infrastructure and agribusiness.
The central bloc of parties is not a single ideological force; it has supported governments of different stripes and can bargain issue by issue. Its votes may therefore be decisive, but their direction cannot be assumed in advance.
There is also a record of progress to protect. Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE) reported that deforestation in the Amazon fell to 3,335 square kilometres between August 2025 and July 2026, the lowest level in its monitoring series, which began in 1988.
The figure is a measure of forest clearance, not the full condition of the biome: fires, degradation and pressure on Indigenous territories also matter. INPE’s latest figures give Lula’s government a result to point to, but not a guarantee that the trend will continue.
Environmental policy received little attention in much of the campaign, despite the stakes.
An uncertain future for the Amazon
However, that silence should not be taken as proof that Brazilians care less about climate or biodiversity, but it represents the failure of candidates as well as news outlets to make it central to the election campaigns.
The result leaves a further question. Did voters embrace Lula’s programme, reject the Bolsonaro family’s political project, or make their choice mainly on other grounds? The narrow margin cannot answer that by itself. Nor does a vote for either candidate show that voters knowingly endorsed every part of their environmental agenda.
A Bolsonaro victory could have opened the way to a sharp change in environmental policy without the Amazon’s future becoming a central question at the ballot box. Lula’s win keeps his government in office, but the more conservative Congress means the direction of Brazil’s climate and conservation agenda will also be contested in Brasília. The election has avoided one possible rupture; it has not settled what protection the Amazon will receive next.
Anders Lorenzen is the founding Editor of A greener life, a greener world.
Related
Discover more from A greener life, a greener world
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
