Crude oil prices have remained highly volatile this year, driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions and changing market dynamics. Even before the US-Iran conflict escalated, prices had begun trending higher. The outbreak of war further fuelled the rally as concerns over supply disruptions intensified, lifting Brent crude and MCX crude oil futures sharply.
However, after encountering resistance in April, both contracts reversed course and declined rapidly through May and June as fears of immediate supply disruptions eased. The correction, much like the preceding rally, was swift. Buying interest has resurfaced since early this month, supported by renewed concerns over supply risks.
So far this year, Brent crude futures and MCX crude oil futures have gained about 45 per cent and 52 per cent respectively. Over the past one year, the contracts are up 27 per cent and 37 per cent, respectively. Against this backdrop, here is the technical outlook on both contracts, highlighting the key support, resistance and trading levels to watch.
Brent crude futures ($88.10/barrel)
Brent crude futures, which was down about 18 per cent and 20 per cent in May and June respectively, rebounded on the back of the support at $70 early this month. It is now hovering around the resistance at $88, its 50-day moving average.
As it stands, the momentum looks positive and Brent crude futures is likely to decisively surpass $88. Once this happens, the contract can rally to $100. A breach of this can lift it to the $115-120 price region.
However, if the price declines from the current level, Brent futures can find support at $77 and $70. A break down below $70 can keep the price suppressed below this resistance and could eventually trigger a decline to $58-60 support band. Immediate notable support below $58 is at $50.
Overall, as it stands, the bias is bullish and so, a rally to $100 appears very likely. This could extend to $115.
MCX Crude oil futures (₹7,945/barrel)
MCX Crude oil futures, like Brent crude futures, lost 16 per cent and 20 per cent in May and June respectively. A couple of weeks ago, the contract started to recover on the back of the base at ₹6,400.
The nearest barrier is at ₹8,000. A breakout of ₹8,000 can take the contract to the ₹9,200-9,400 price band. If the bulls can push the price above ₹9,400, a rally to ₹10,500 and ₹11,000 will become a reasonable possibility.
In case the ongoing rally fizzles out and the crude oil futures take a turn downwards, it can slip to ₹7,000 and ₹6,400. In case the support at ₹6,400 is breached, the bears will gain considerable strength and the price could remain below ₹6,400 for quite some time. Notable support levels below ₹6,400 can be spotted at ₹5,800 and ₹5,500.
Published on July 18, 2026
